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Recession Deeper Than Thought

According to the Associated Press, the recession we’ve experienced was more severe than we realized.  And ominously, it may not be over.

The Commerce Department, in revisions issued Friday, estimates the economy shrank 2.6 percent last year — the steepest drop since 1946. That’s worse than the 2.4 percent decline originally estimated.

The economy’s plunge underscores why the unemployment rate surged to 10.1 percent in October, a 26-year high.

The revisions in gross domestic product, or GDP, now show zero growth in 2008. That compares with a 0.4 percent gain previously estimated.The economy also grew less in 2007 (1.9 percent) than earlier thought (2.1 percent).

For all three years, consumers spent less and home builders cut more deeply than had been thought. Those factors help explain the downward revisions on the economy……

The economy slid into its worst recession since the Great Depression in late 2007. Many economists think the recession ended last summer, although a panel of academics that dates the start and end of recessions hasn’t declared when this one ended. The panel usually does so well after the fact.

From the start of the recession in December 2007 until the April-to-June quarter of 2009, the economy sank 4.1 percent. That was deeper than the 3.7 percent decline previously estimated for the recession.

Our Divisive President

Today’s Wall Street Journal has a remarkably insightful op-ed by Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen about the divisive presidency of Barack Obama.

Rather than being a unifier, Mr. Obama has divided America on the basis of race, class and partisanship. Moreover, his cynical approach to governance has encouraged his allies to pursue a similar strategy of racially divisive politics on his behalf…..

he first hint that as president Mr. Obama would be willing to interject race into the political dialogue came last July, when he jumped to conclusions about the confrontation between Harvard Prof. Henry Louis “Skip” Gates and the Cambridge police.

During a press conference, the president said that the “Cambridge police acted stupidly,” and he went on to link the arrest with the “long history in this country of African-Americans and Latinos being stopped by law enforcement disproportionately.”

In truth, the Gates incident appears to have had nothing to do with race—a Cambridge review committee that investigated the incident ruled on June 30 that there was fault on both sides.

Sen. Jon Kyl (R., Ariz.) has said the president told him in a closed-door meeting that he would not move to secure the border with Mexico unless and until Congress reached a breakthrough on comprehensive immigration reform. That’s another indication Mr. Obama is willing to continue to play politics with hot-button issues.

Add in the lawsuit against the Arizona immigration law and it’s clear the Obama administration is willing to run the risk of dividing the American people along racial and ethnic lines to mobilize its supporters—particularly Hispanic voters, whose backing it needs in the fall midterm elections and beyond…….

On an issue that has gotten much less attention, but is potentially just as divisive, the Justice Department has pointedly refused to prosecute three members of the New Black Panther Party for voter intimidation at the polls on Election Day 2008.

It is the job of the Department of Justice to protect all American voters from voter discrimination and voter intimidation—whether committed by the far right, the far left, or the New Black Panthers. It is unacceptable for the Department of Justice to continue to stonewall on this issue……

Mr. Obama has also cynically divided the country on class lines. He has taken to playing the populist card time and time again. He bashes Wall Street and insurance companies whenever convenient to advance his programs, yet he has been eager to accept campaign contributions and negotiate with these very same banks and corporations behind closed doors in order to advance his political agenda.

Finally, President Obama also exacerbated partisan division, and he has made it clear that he intends to demonize the Republicans and former President George W. Bush in the fall campaign. In April, the Democratic National Committee released a video in which the president directly addressed his divide-and-conquer campaign strategy, with an appeal to: “young people, African-Americans, Latinos, and women who powered our victory in 2008 [to] stand together once again.”

President Obama’s divisive approach to governance has weakened us as a people and paralyzed our political culture. Meanwhile, the Republican leadership has failed to put forth an agenda that is more positive, unifying or inclusive. We are stronger when we debate issues and purpose, and we are all weaker when we divide by race and class. We will pay a price for this type of politics.

Completely Unpegged From the Truth…..

Anti-Gold provision in Obamacare?

Glenn mentioned this last week.  According to ABC News a provision included in the health care bill signed into law by President Obama this year will place new IRS reporting requirements on the buying and selling of gold.

Section 9006 of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will amend the Internal Revenue Code to expand the scope of Form 1099. Currently, 1099 forms are used to track and report the miscellaneous income associated with services rendered by independent contractors or self-employed individuals…..

Starting Jan. 1, 2012, Form 1099s will become a means of reporting to the Internal Revenue Service the purchases of all goods and services by small businesses and self-employed people that exceed $600 during a calendar year. Precious metals such as coins and bullion fall into this category and coin dealers have been among those most rankled by the change.

This provision, intended to mine what the IRS deems a vast reservoir of uncollected income tax, was included in the health care legislation ostensibly as a way to pay for it. The tax code tweak is expected to raise $17 billion over the next 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation…..

Pat Heller, who owns Liberty Coin Service in Lansing, Mich., deals with around 1,000 customers every week. Many are individuals looking to protect wealth in an uncertain economy, he said, while others are dealers like him.

With spot market prices for gold at nearly $1,200 an ounce, Heller estimates that he’ll be filling out between 10,000 and 20,000 tax forms per year after the new law takes effect.

“I’ll have to hire two full-time people just to track all this stuff, which cuts into my profitability,” he said.

Sorry liberals, Glenn isn’t going anywhere

Daily Finance gives an update on the nearly year long boycott against Glenn Beck.  And the news is good.

Almost a year ago, Glenn Beck created an uproar when he called President Obama a “racist” who had a “deep-seated hatred for white people or the white culture.” Liberals screamed for Beck’s head while advertisers and viewers fled from his talk show on Fox News Channel….

According to the latest ratings from Nielsen, The Glenn Beck Show is seen by more than 2.4 million viewers, including 637,000 in the 25- to 54-year-old demographic of interest to advertisers on news programs….

Beck’s viewership is larger than his competitors in his same time slot at CNN, MSNBC, CNBC and HLN combined. His radio show is the third-most-listened-to talk program behind Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity’s, according to Talkers Magazine. His weekly listenership is about 7 million over more than 400 affiliate radio stations. Plus, as my colleague Sarah Weinman pointed out recently, Beck is even breathing new life into the moribund book publishing industry…..

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Beck’s critics have failed to hurt the talk show host and his corporate masters where it counts — on their bottom lines. As Harrison points out, the only way that News Corp would take him off the air would be for financial, not political, reasons. Beck, though, finds friends in the strangest of places. A New York Times editorial praised Beck for not rushing to judgment in the story of Shirley Sherrod, the U.S. Department of Agriculture employee unfairly smeared as a racist. Sherrod was offered her job back by an apologetic USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack after he got all the facts of the situation.

Elevated Unemployment Through 2012

The New York Times reports that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke predicts that unemployment will stay elevated for the entire term of President Barack Obama.

The chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said Wednesday that the recovery was continuing at a modest pace, though with a “somewhat weaker outlook.”

He projected that the unemployment rate would remain well above 7 percent through the end of 2012, and the duration of President Obama’s current term. That, too, was a discouraging note to Washington incumbents facing tough re-election fights….

In presenting the Fed’s semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, Mr. Bernanke said that it would take “a significant amount of time” to restore the 8.5 million jobs lost in the United States in 2008 and 2009, and that “the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain.”

He also warned that financial conditions, particularly the European debt crisis, had “become less supportive of economic growth in recent months.”

……Minutes from the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s main policy-making arm, indicated that a few officials had a new worry: deflation. Those officials believe that inflation — which is running at about half the Fed’s desired range of 1.7 to 2 percent — has been so low that it could turn into a dangerous spiral of falling prices like the one that has plagued Japan since the mid-1990s.

“Forecasts are very uncertain, but I don’t view deflation as a near-term risk for the United States,” Mr. Bernanke told Mr. Shelby, noting that inflation expectations had remained stable.

Beck’s Eye Condition

If you’ve been listening to the radio or TV show you know that Beck has been speaking off and on about difficulties that he has with his vision.

Well now it’s official.  Fox News reports that Glenn has Macular Dystrophy.

Yes, I have a problem with my eyes,” Beck said in his announcement. “A couple of weeks ago, I went to the doctor because I can’t focus my eyes … So I went to the best doctor I could find … he did all kinds of tests, and he said I have macular dystrophy.”



Keep him in your prayers.

Which Group is Racist?

Last week the NAACP voted to condemn racism by the Tea Party movement even though there was little or no evidence of racism.  Well pot, meet kettle.  According to a CBS News report there actually is evidence of racism at NAACP events.   CBS News reports:

The NAACP’s action caught the attention of Andrew Breitbart of BigGovernment.com, who said the controversy was “absolutely manufactured for political gain,” in a summer “in which the economy is the number one issue affecting blacks and whites in this country. This country can ill afford the schism of race to be exploited the way [he is] based upon the false premise of the Tea Party being racist.”

He also claimed to possess recorded evidence of racism from the NAACP.

On Monday, Breitbart posted a video of a speech by Shirley Sherrod, USDA Rural Development Georgia State Director, delivered at the NAACP’s 20th Annual Freedom Fund Banquet. The video shows Sherrod speaking of racial considerations being a factor for how much help she would give.

Sherrod tendered her resignation Monday.

Health Care Mandate is Really a Tax?

After promising not to raise the taxes on people making less than $250,000  “one thin dime” the Obama Administration is trying a new tack in Court when it comes to defending the health care mandate.  According to the New York Times, they are calling the comprehensive requirement imposed on every American regardless of income — you guessed it –  a tax.

When Congress required most Americans to obtain health insurance or pay a penalty, Democrats denied that they were creating a new tax. But in court, the Obama administration and its allies now defend the requirement as an exercise of the government’s “power to lay and collect taxes.”

And that power, they say, is even more sweeping than the federal power to regulate interstate commerce.

Administration officials say the tax argument is a linchpin of their legal case in defense of the health care overhaul and its individual mandate, now being challenged in court by more than 20 states and several private organizations.

Under the legislation signed by President Obama in March, most Americans will have to maintain “minimum essential coverage” starting in 2014. Many people will be eligible for federal subsidies to help them pay premiums.

In a brief defending the law, the Justice Department says the requirement for people to carry insurance or pay the penalty is “a valid exercise” of Congress’s power to impose taxes.

Congress can use its taxing power “even for purposes that would exceed its powers under other provisions” of the Constitution, the department said. For more than a century, it added, the Supreme Court has held that Congress can tax activities that it could not reach by using its power to regulate commerce.

Senate Passes Financial Services Overhaul

Yesterday the Senate passed a 2300 page financial services reform bill.  According to the Wall Street Journal it will “remake the U.S.  financial landscape.”

The bill, to be signed into law soon by President Barack Obama, marks a potential sea change for the financial-services industry. Financial titans such as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. may be forced to make changes in most parts of their business, from debit cards to the ability to invest in hedge funds.

The Senate passed the bill 60-39 Thursday, following House passage last month. Earlier in the day, three northeastern Republicans joined with Democrats to block a filibuster, allowing the bill to squeak through…..

Now, the legislation hands off to 10 regulatory agencies the discretion to write hundreds of new rules governing finance. Rather than the bill itself, it will be this process—accompanied by a lobbying blitz from banks—that will determine the precise contours of this new landscape, how strict the new regulations will be and whether they succeed in their purpose. The decisions will be made by officials from new agencies, obscure agencies and, in some cases, agencies like the Federal Reserve that faced criticism in the run-up to the crisis……

The legislation creates a council of regulators to monitor economic risks; establishes a new agency to police consumer financial products; and sets new standards for the way derivatives are traded. “These reforms will benefit the prudent and constrain the imprudent,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a press conference. “Strong banks, the well-managed financial innovators, will adapt and thrive under the new rules of the road.”

….Regulators will have multiple questions to answer. What types of trades can banks conduct, and what types will be illegal? At what level should regulators cap the fees that retailers pay to banks to process debit-card transactions? On which companies will the Fed apply stricter regulations? What will be the new standards for mortgages, credit cards and ATM fees?